Kenya Meteorological Department says short-rains forecast unchanged despite late start in some areas

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has not changed its forecast of above-average rain for October to December, even though the short rains have started late in some areas, the Kenya News Agency (KNA) reported on 16 October 2026.

"We have not changed our forecast," KMD's Jemimah Ongoma said at an online Journalists-Scientists Dialogue organised by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development's Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). She said above-average rainfall is still expected in most counties, including Kajiado, from October to December. Experts from Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Somalia and Djibouti took part.

Eunice Koech, a climate scientist at ICPAC, said forecasts from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology still point to a strong to very strong El Niño. "El Niño's strength does not imply that we are expecting extremely high rainfall," she said. The experts said public anxiety had been heightened by references to a "Super El Niño", and that a late start does not mean the seasonal forecast has changed.

George Omony, a Ugandan meteorological officer, said the Indian Ocean had not fully responded to changes in the Pacific, which partly explains the delay. He said El Niño was also linked to the suppressed rainfall from June to September.

KMD defines the start of the rains as the receipt of at least 20 millimetres of rainfall within three consecutive days, with no dry spell longer than seven days afterwards, KNA reported.

The seasonal outlook document, dated 31 August 2026 and issued under the letterhead of the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority, gave the expected start by county. In Nairobi, Nyeri, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Laikipia, Nyandarua, Kirinyaga, Murang'a and Tharaka-Nithi the rains were expected in the second to third week of October and to continue into January. For Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita-Taveta and inland parts of Tana River County the outlook gave the third to fourth week of October, also continuing into January.

On the coast (Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi and the Tana Delta) the outlook put the start in the second to third week of October and the end in the first to second week of December. It gave the same dates for Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo. Turkana and Samburu were to start in the third to fourth week of October and end in the first week of December, with rainfall distribution rated poor to fair. In Nandi, Kakamega, Kisumu, Migori, Narok and other counties in the west and Rift Valley, rain was to continue from September into January.

The outlook expects above-average rainfall in more than 40 counties, including Nairobi, Kajiado, Kisumu, Mombasa and Garissa, with heavy rainfall events likely in several parts of them. It defines "above average" as more than 125% of the long-term mean, the average over many years. Near-average to above-average rain is likely in Turkana and a few parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit, and the outlook gives a 15 to 20% chance of a mild drought in Turkana. ICPAC's regional outlook gave a 90% probability of enhanced rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia and north-eastern Kenya, KNA reported.

The same document reviewed the June–August season. Most of the country received below-average rain, and the Lodwar, Garissa and Mandera meteorological stations recorded none. The October–December season supplies more than 30% of annual rainfall in several counties, including Nairobi, Garissa, Machakos, Mombasa and Marsabit, and brings more than 700 millimetres of rain to some parts of the country.

The document says it should be used together with the 24-hour, 5-day, 7-day and monthly forecasts and regular updates, and that county weekly forecasts and monthly and seasonal outlooks are available from the offices of the county directors of meteorological services.

CGTN Africa reported on 17 October that prolonged dry conditions, which it linked to El Niño, have disrupted fresh milk supplies in Kenya. The Kenya Dairy Board said on 1 September that formal milk deliveries to processors fell 3.7%, from 84.4 million litres in June to 81.3 million litres in July. Nora Makena, a farm technical supervisor, said feed makes up about 70% of production costs, against 55% last year, as quoted by CGTN. CGTN said the government is preparing measures to stabilise the dairy industry, including distributing animal feed, strengthening market monitoring and improving cold-chain infrastructure.

"We, the scientists, are not communicating well to the public," Omony said. Ongoma called for sustained engagement between scientists and the media.