Kenyan weather service forecasts above-average November rain in 40-plus counties

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority forecast above-average rainfall for November in 43 counties and in much of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit. The outlook, dated 30 October 2026, lists Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Nakuru, Kiambu, Machakos and Kajiado among them. It also expects daytime highs of up to 38°C in parts of the north.

In the authority's terms, above-average means more than 125 per cent of the long-term mean. Parts of Turkana, West Pokot, Samburu, Baringo and Marsabit are forecast to get near-average to above-average rain. Mean temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across the country.

The other counties on the above-average list are Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Isiolo, Kakamega, Kericho, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Migori, Murang'a, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga and Wajir.

November falls within the October–December short rains. November rainfall is influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and intra-seasonal systems such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Embu, Murang'a and Busia are among the areas that normally get substantial rain at this time of year. The same county list appeared in the authority's October–December seasonal outlook, issued on 31 August 2026.

Temperatures are given by county group. Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang'a, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Meru, Embu and Tharaka-Nithi should see highs of 20°C to 30°C and lows of 4°C to 20°C. Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale and the Tana Delta are forecast at 25°C to 35°C by day and 20°C to 25°C at night.

Turkana and Samburu are forecast at 20°C to 38°C by day and 8°C to 28°C at night. Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo are also put at 20°C to 38°C, with nights of 15°C to 28°C. Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita Taveta and inland Tana River are forecast at 20°C to 35°C by day and 10°C to 20°C at night.

In a further group that includes Nakuru, Kisumu, Kakamega, Kisii, Uasin Gishu and Narok, highs of 20°C to 30°C and lows of 8°C to 20°C are expected. Mean temperatures are expected to range between 15°C and 20°C in the highlands and to exceed 28°C in the arid and semi-arid lowlands.

The extra rain may raise the risk of flash floods, riverine flooding, landslides and damage to infrastructure. Areas at greater risk include low-lying coastal regions, flood-prone river basins, urban centres with poor drainage and steep highland areas prone to erosion and landslides.

Rural access roads may become impassable after prolonged rain, affecting the movement of people, goods and essential services. Towns may see traffic congestion and disruption where drainage is overwhelmed.

Stagnant water could favour mosquito breeding and raise the risk of malaria transmission in susceptible areas. Flooding and poor drainage may contaminate water sources and sanitation facilities, raising the risk of cholera, typhoid and diarrhoeal infections.

For farmers, adequate rain should support crops, pasture and livestock, but wetter areas may see waterlogging, delayed field work, more crop pests and disease, and trouble moving produce on poor roads. The rain is likely to raise river flows and replenish dams, water pans and groundwater, and may help water sources in arid and semi-arid areas recover from prolonged dry conditions.

The authority's review of October found that most counties had below-average to near-average rain. Marsabit, Garissa, Mandera, Kisii, Kisumu and Lamu stations passed their October long-term means. The highest monthly total, 264.4 mm, was recorded at Ngiya Primary School in Siaya County. Lodwar recorded the month's highest daily maximum, 40.0°C on 22 October.

The outlook for November 2026 to January 2027 repeats the above-average rainfall forecast for the same counties and again expects warmer-than-average temperatures. The outlook should be read with the authority's 24-hour, 5-day, 7-day and special forecasts and advisories. County monthly and weekly forecasts are available from the offices of the County Directors of Meteorological Services.

The document, reference KMD/FCST/04-2026/MO/11, is signed by Edward M. Muriuki, the authority's acting director general. KBC and Kenyans.co.ke reported the outlook on 1 November 2026. The document gives the authority's address as Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Road, Nairobi, and its telephone numbers as 020 3867880-7 and 0724 255 153/4.