Kenya's ordinary revenue misses first-quarter target by KES 58.2 billion, with income tax the biggest gap

Kenya's ordinary revenue fell KES 58.2 billion short of target in the first quarter of the 2026/27 financial year, even as collections grew 14.4 per cent from a year earlier, Business Daily reported on 11 October 2026.

Ordinary revenue, which covers tax and non-tax receipts, came in at KES 655.8 billion in the three months to September, against KES 573.5 billion in the same period of 2025, according to National Treasury data cited by the newspaper.

Total revenue, which adds ministerial appropriations in aid, was KES 40.4 billion below target. Those receipts, the fees and charges that ministries and agencies raise, beat their target by KES 17.8 billion.

The Treasury said total revenue grew 15.9 per cent by the end of September 2026, compared with 1.4 per cent a year earlier.

Income tax produced the largest gap. It brought in KES 297.9 billion against a target of KES 323.3 billion, a shortfall of KES 25.4 billion.

Excise duty was KES 16.3 billion short of its target. Import duty was the only major tax head that did not fall below target, the newspaper reported.

Expenditure exceeded its target by KES 116.9 billion, including KES 59.3 billion on recurrent spending and KES 34.7 billion on development, according to the report.

The fiscal deficit including grants reached KES 329.1 billion, or 1.6 per cent of GDP, against a target of KES 174.8 billion, or 0.8 per cent of GDP.

The Treasury's draft 2026 Budget Review and Outlook Paper, published in August, put the deficit including grants at 6.8 per cent of GDP in 2025/26 and projects 5.5 per cent of GDP in 2026/27.