China's zero tariffs run to 2028: what Kenyan firms can sell, and what is worth buying

China stopped charging import duty on Kenyan goods on 1 May 2026, and the window runs to 30 April 2028. From May to August, Kenyan avocado shipments to China rose 63% by volume and green coffee about 140% on the same months of 2025, The Star reported on 1 October.

The gap is still wide. Kenya bought KSh 671.2 billion of goods from China in 2025 and sold it KSh 16.9 billion, KNBS data published by Business Daily show. Exports to China fell 35.7% that year, mainly because of lower shipments of titanium ore and macadamia nuts.

About 18 months of zero duty are left. This guide covers what the policy does, the barriers beyond duty, what is worth selling, what is worth buying, and two step-by-step checklists, one for exporters and one for importers.

1. What the policy covers

Kenya's "Early Harvest" deal with China, a first step toward a fuller partnership agreement known as CADEPA, is meant to let about 98.2% of Kenyan exports into China duty-free, Capital FM reported in January. Before May, China charged 8% on green coffee, 20% on roasted coffee and 15% on tea, Capital FM reported in November 2025. Fresh avocados paid 7%, Xinhua reported.

Product	Chinese duty before 1 May 2026	Now
Green coffee	8%	0%
Roasted coffee	20%	0%
Tea	15%	0%
Fresh avocados	7%	0%

The legal basis is Announcement No. 5 of 2026 of China's Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council and Announcement No. 54 of 2026 of the General Administration of Customs. Kenya is one of 20 non-least-developed African countries covered, according to a Thomson Reuters regulatory summary. For 95 tariff lines in HS chapters 10, 11, 17, 31, 51 and 52, only in-quota volumes are duty-free, and 31 lines in chapters 17, 24, 29, 40 and 98 are excluded. Those chapters are mainly cereals, flour, sugar, fertiliser, wool and cotton; coffee, tea and avocados are not among them.

Three conditions come with it. Exporters need a certificate of origin to claim the zero rate. For products under a Chinese tariff quota, only the in-quota volume is duty-free. And what happens after April 2028 depends on talks: China says it will keep negotiating CADEPA with African countries during the two years, and on 30 September Prime Cabinet Secretary and Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi said Kenya was ready to advance the CADEPA negotiations.

If the certificate of origin is not ready when the goods arrive, Chinese customs can release them against a supplementary declaration and a duty guarantee, and grant the zero rate once the certificate is in, Xinhua reported in May. Its example was a shipment of Egyptian oranges.

2. The barriers beyond duty

Registration. Food factories must register with China's General Administration of Customs (GACC) before they ship, and products must be labelled in Chinese. GACC Decree No. 280 took effect on 1 June 2026. For 17 food categories, including nuts and seeds, edible oils and fats, and aquatic products, the overseas factory first needs an inspection report and a recommendation letter from its own country's authority, then applies through GACC's registration system at cifer.singlewindow.cn, the testing and certification consultancy CIRS says. Unroasted coffee beans have been taken off that list and are registered by the company itself. For Kenya, macadamia, avocado oil and sea cucumbers all fall in the categories that need a recommendation.

Market access. Fresh produce needs a plant-health protocol between the two countries. Avocados have a plant-health protocol with China, and only orchards and packhouses approved by GACC may ship them; mangoes and dried chillies were still awaiting GACC approval in November 2025, Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe said. Coffee got easier: since 20 July, coffee beans from all 53 African countries with diplomatic ties to China can be shipped under one set of rules covering farm management, processor registration, export inspection and phytosanitary certificates, Xinhua reported in May. Xinhua added that this does not mean African coffee clears customs without inspection.

Documents. The Star listed the export documents on 2 May: a commercial invoice, a certificate of origin, export permits and health certificates. Phytosanitary certificates for plant products are issued by the Kenya Plant Health Inspectorate Service (KEPHIS).

3. What to sell

Coffee is the clearest opening. The 2026 China Urban Coffee Development Report, released in Shanghai on 30 April, puts China's coffee drinking at 28.57 cups per person in 2025, up from 16.74 in 2023, and counts 10,336 coffee outlets in Shanghai alone. China imported about 224 million kg of green coffee in 2025, up 15.7%, according to the commodities broker StoneX. In December 2023 a trade delegation led by the president of the Kenya-China Cooperation Committee put China's potential purchases of Kenyan coffee at US$100 million a year.

Chinese buyers pay well but buy little. Among direct-sale buyers of Kenyan coffee in the three months to March 2026, China paid the highest average price, US$646.07 per 50 kg bag, Business Daily reported in August; direct sales totalled 3.19 million kg, about half to Switzerland and about 45% to the UK. Kenyan coffee in China is a specialty product, best sold by lot, region and cupping score rather than on price.

Tea is harder. China grows and drinks more tea than any other country, most of it green. Kenya shipped 12.42 million kg of tea to China in 2024, and in May 2025 Kagwe set a target of 50 million kg by 2030. The first duty-free consignment, which reached Xiamen in May, was 15.125 tonnes worth about US$40,000. The Tea Board of Kenya expects growth in green and specialty teas, China Daily reported in July. But China bought 1.22 million kg of Kenyan tea in the first quarter of 2026, down 51% on a year earlier, and uses it mainly for blending, Food Business MEA reported in June. The 15% duty saving may not outweigh swings in price and demand.

Avocados already work. In the early hours of 1 May a Shenzhen trading company declared more than 6,900 kg of fresh Kenyan avocados at Guangzhou Baiyun Airport customs, one of the first shipments under zero duty, Xinhua reported. China imported 3,997 tonnes of avocados from Kenya in 2025, and Kenya is China's third-largest supplier after Peru and Chile, Produce Report said in April.

Processed and aquatic products are growing fastest. Avocado oil exports to China are up about 700% and aquatic products, including sea cucumbers, about 350%, Chinese Ambassador Guo Haiyan said on 30 September. Both need a recommended GACC registration: a higher bar, but fewer competitors once through it.

Macadamia shows the limits. Kenya bans exports of unprocessed macadamia under crop regulations made in 2013. In June the Nut Traders Association of Kenya asked Kagwe to suspend the ban for six months, citing thousands of tonnes unsold.

4. What to buy

Kenya's biggest purchases from China are steel, telecoms equipment and machinery. The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) provisional data put imports from China at KSh 671.25 billion in 2025, 24.02% of Kenya's total; in 2024 flat-rolled steel came to KSh 23.16 billion and telecoms equipment to KSh 13.26 billion. Those bulk lines are not small-firm business. The categories below have lower entry barriers. Some are established markets, others have no ready sales data, and each entry says what the evidence is and what to check first.

Solar panels and storage: the firmest demand. Africa imported 18.8 GW of Chinese solar panels in 2025, up 48% on 2024, according to energy think-tank Ember, and Kenya was one of ten countries importing more than 0.3 GW. Energy News reported that Kenya bought about US$46 million of complete panels from China in 2024, and China supplied 96% of them. The risk is quality: the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) has said it plans rules requiring imported components to carry at least five years' validity, to keep out cheap low-grade goods. Confirm with EPRA whether those rules have been issued before you order.

Electric motorcycles and e-bikes: fast growth, shifting policy. Business Daily reported that Yadea, China's largest e-motorbike maker, has launched five models in Kenya aimed at boda boda riders, priced up to about US$3,000. Policy is unsettled. The Finance Bill 2026 proposed moving electric motorcycles, e-bicycles and lithium-ion batteries from zero-rated to VAT-exempt, which assemblers estimate could add up to KSh 46,000 to an electric motorcycle. Parliament's Finance Committee recommended keeping zero-rating for locally assembled electric motorcycles and lithium-ion batteries; the final Finance Act governs. In one case, KRA treated some imported Chinese kits as complete vehicles and charged 25% import duty, 16% VAT and US$81 excise per unit, and the Tax Appeals Tribunal backed KRA. If you import kits to assemble yourself, check the tariff code with your clearing agent first.

Phones, accessories and small appliances: the largest volume, thin margins. Telecoms equipment is regularly among Kenya's top imports from China. Handsets and electronics are transparent on price and the margin is thin, so more retailers work in accessories (chargers, cables, cases, earphones) and small appliances. The Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) warned in June that VAT changes could raise phone prices, so again watch the final Finance Act. Electronics are regulated goods under KEBS and need a Certificate of Conformity.

Wigs and hair products: an established market. Xuchang in Henan says about 60% of the world's wigs come from there. Africanews reported in June 2025 that Xuchang's hair-product exports passed US$2 billion in 2024, and a Nairobi shop owner said no Kenyan producer could make the same goods. Business Daily reported that wigs in downtown Nairobi shops sell for KSh 3,000 to KSh 30,000, and that Chinese imports have hurt traders who sell expensive human-hair wigs. The competition in this category is fast-changing styles and after-sales service. Before importing, separate human hair, synthetic hair and hair pieces, which carry different tariff codes.

Underwear: a shortage of well-fitting goods at fair prices. Market-research firm ecommerceDB estimates Kenya's online underwear and nightwear sales at about US$9.7 million in 2025, growing 8.7% a year from 2025 to 2029; it is an estimate and covers online sales only. Business Daily reported that when the French brand Etam entered Nairobi, its franchise owner said there was almost no competition in well-fitting women's lingerie, and that good local lingerie shops cluster in upmarket streets and malls, leaving a gap in the middle price range. Supply is not tight: Chinese customs data compiled by SunSirs show China's underwear and nightwear exports fell 10.7% in 2025 and shapewear fell 11.8%, so factories have room for small orders. Note that sizing must be set for Kenyan customers, not assumed from Asian sizes, so have local customers try samples before the first order. Finished garments pay the 25% East African Community common external tariff plus 16% VAT. Underwear is worn against the skin, so do not bring in second-hand stock.

Hanfu and new-Chinese clothing: niche, test small. iiMedia Research puts China's domestic hanfu market at RMB 14.47 billion in 2023, forecast to reach RMB 24.18 billion in 2027, with styles, fabrics and price tiers well developed, from entry-level pieces costing tens of yuan to craft pieces costing over a thousand. We found no hanfu sales data for Kenya. The occasions we can confirm are Confucius Institute events: the Confucius Institutes at the University of Nairobi and Kenyatta University hold Confucius Day and Mid-Autumn poetry gatherings with recitation, guzheng and martial arts. Plausible buyers are performance outfits for Confucius Institutes and Chinese-language schools, weddings and photography, and Chinese cultural events. Keep the first order to a few dozen pieces, pick easy-to-wear modern cuts rather than wide-sleeved formal sets that need someone to dress the wearer, and expect the same 25% tariff on finished garments.

Pet supplies are the easiest start. China's pet industry reached US$43.4 billion in 2025, a US Department of Agriculture report says. Leashes, beds, bowls, toys, grooming tools and cat litter are light and do not spoil. Pet food is different: food containing meat is imported as an animal product, and is best left alone at the start.

Tiles, sanitaryware and other building materials: volume, but count the freight. Ceramic products rank high among Kenya's imports from China, which suits building-material wholesalers and fit-out suppliers. The goods are heavy and fragile, so the contract should say how a container is loaded and who bears breakage.

Chinese wine: a talking point, high barriers. Ningxia wines won more than half of the 214 medals awarded to Chinese wines at the 2026 Decanter World Wine Awards. In Kenya, imported wine carries excise duty and KRA excise stamps. Since 27 December 2024 the excise rate on wine has been KSh 22.50 per centilitre of pure alcohol, a KRA notice says. On that rate, a 750 ml bottle at 13% alcohol pays about KSh 219 in excise. Importing and selling alcohol also requires a liquor licence, so it suits distributors who already hold one.

Not recommended: goods China itself imports heavily, such as salmon, which Nairobi buyers can source closer to home from Norway or Chile; and caviar, which needs a CITES permit and an unbroken cold chain and is not a fit for small traders.

Regulated goods from China need a KEBS Certificate of Conformity, issued after inspection in the country of supply, and imported finished products must carry an Import Standardization Mark sticker. KEBS began a new round of Pre-Export Verification of Conformity (PVoC) contracts in 2026; the appointed inspection firms include Bureau Veritas, Intertek and China Certification & Inspection Group (CCIC). On top of import duty, importers pay 16% VAT plus the Import Declaration Fee (IDF) and Railway Development Levy (RDL), both charged on customs value at the rates in KRA's current notices.

Ships from Shanghai, Ningbo and Guangzhou's Nansha port reach Mombasa weekly in 22 to 30 days, and air freight to Nairobi takes two to seven days, according to DP World's route information.

limits the risk of paying in full upfront.

Book inspection. Book a third-party inspection before loading, by firms such as SGS, Bureau Veritas or Intertek, and get the Certificate of Conformity through a KEBS-appointed firm.

Book freight. Share a container for small loads and book a full one for large loads; allow about a month by sea.

Clear customs. Declare through a clearing agent to KRA customs, with permits through the Kenya TradeNet single window (KenTrade), and pay duty, VAT, IDF and RDL, plus excise and stamps for alcohol.

For buyers, the Canton Fair in Guangzhou is held every spring and autumn. Phase three of this autumn's 140th fair, themed on everyday living, runs from 31 October to 4 November.

7. Dates and risks

Date	What
31 October to 4 November	Canton Fair phase three, Guangzhou
5 to 10 November	Ninth China International Import Expo, Shanghai; Kenya is "Export to China" theme country
Spring 2027	141st Canton Fair, dates not yet announced
30 April 2028	Zero-duty arrangement ends; what follows depends on CADEPA talks

There are three risks. First, zero duty has an end date, so long-term contracts should say who bears any duty from May 2028. Second, duty has fallen but inspection, registration and labelling have not got easier, and tea exports to China fell in the first quarter. Third, the trade gap is wide, and export growth starts from a very small base.